Partisan Animosity and America

Executive Summary

How do Americans perceive political scientists? Many projects rely on political scientists as experts to comment on political events, evaluate candidates, and sometimes offer predictions on electoral outcomes. This report examines how Americans view political scientists and their work. We find that Americans see political scientists as mostly Democratic, and have middling trust in their work. Americans are ambivalent on political scientists’ contributions to society.

Specifically, Americans have middling perceptions of their contributions and intentions, suggesting political scientists should take care when commenting publicly on the 2024 election.

Key findings include:

• Americans see political scientists as more politically diverse than they actually are. Democratic political scientists are seen as 9 percentage points more common than Republicans, although the actual gap may be greater than 50 percentage points.
• Democrats and Republicans are polarized on political scientists’ contributions. A majority of Republicans (60%) have little confidence in political scientists’ claims about democracy, compared to only 20% of Democrats. Similar gaps emerge in political scientists’ perceived contributions to society and American democracy.
• A majority of Americans would be indifferent to their child studying political science. 66% of Democrats say they would proud of their son or daughter studying political science, while 40% of Republicans would similarly be proud. Only 3% of Democrats and 17% would be disappointed in such an event.
• Americans have a strong preference for neutrality. 71% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats agree political scientists should remain politically neutral.

Main Results

This the first in a series of monthly reports on the state of partisan animosity conducted by the Polarization Research Lab (PRL) at Dartmouth College, University of Pennsylvania, and Stanford University. This report looks at 2,000 interviews conducted in September 2024 on the YouGov platform.

The focus of this September 2024 report is perceptions of political scientists. As the election draws nearer, many media outlets turn to political scientists to comment on political events, evaluate candidates, and sometimes offer predictions on electoral outcomes. This represents an opportunity for political scientists (the writers of this report included) to share their expertise. However, there is always danger of backlash in providing public commentary from a position of influence, especially if it is perceived as biased or coming from a biased source. In this report, we determine how Americans view political scientists and their work, with a goal of urging care when our discipline shares our work outside the halls of academia.

Political scientists are perceived as moderately more Democratic

We asked respondents what percent of American political scientists they believed were Democrats or Republicans.¹ Overall, Americans perceive political scientists as mostly Democratic. On average Americans thought 56% of political scientists were Democrats, and that 47% were Republicans. This perception is consistent across partisans as well: Democrats believe 56% of political scientists to be Democrats and 45% Republicans, and Republicans believe 57% to be Democrats and 45% Republican. Perceptions appear only lightly influenced by educational attainment. Respondents with at least a college degree perceive 58% of political scientists to be Democrats and 43% Republicans, while respondents without a college degree perceive 55% to be Democrats and 45% Republicans.

These perceptions likely understate the actual difference in partisan affiliations of political scientists. In a 2017 survey of political scientists employed by the top 66 U.S. universities, Langbert (2018) found the ratio of Democratic to Republican faculty to be 8.2 to 1. Similarly, in a 2019 survey of political scientists in North Carolina and Florida, Atkeson and Taylor (2019) found 61% identified as Democrats, compared to only 11% Republican (28% did not state a preference between the two). This mirrors results on the political preferences of scientists broadly; Kaurav et al. (2022) find fewer than 10% of all donations from academic scientists went to Republican candidates.

Americans dramatically overestimate the number of political scientists who are Republicans

Democratic political scientists are seen as 9 percentage points more common than Republicans, although the actual gap may be greater than 50 percentage points.

Americans are unsure whether to trust political scientists

Over multiple issues, the average American is indifferent on the the trustworthiness of political sciences, with between 33% and 52% saying they neither trust nor distrust political scientists. At the same time, Democrats are systematically more willing to trust political scientists than Republicans, often at levels more than twice that of Republicans.

Americans are generally the most trusting of political scientists with regard to policy issues, such as foreign relations and trade policy. Political scientists, then, do not appear to have overwhelming biases for or against their assessments, and have latitude to shape their own credibility.

We cannot speak to over-time trends, but today a majority of Americans are ambivalent or distrustful of political scientists. Importantly, however, levels of trust are similar across issues, despite varying levels of historical performance on each issue (i.e., respondents are as trusting on election predictions as foreign relations, despite recent failings in electoral predictions).

Another interpretation that we cannot adjudicate is that Americans are indifferent because they don’t have strong opinions on political scientists.

Americans prefer political scientists stay neutral

A majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents agree that political scientists should remain politically neutral when communicating with the public about American politics. However, partisans are split in their confidence of political scientists making any claims about democracy in America. Republicans in general have little confidence in political scientists commenting about American democracy, while Democrats typically have at least some confidence.

This highlights the fraught nature of professional commentary about American politics, even from commentators perceived to be generally balanced on partisanship. There is a strong preference for neutrality, but confidence quickly polarizes on particular salient areas.

Americans are ambivalent on political scientists’ contributions

On average, Americans think political scientists contribute something to American political debates, protecting democracy, and society generally. There are notable partisan gaps: Republicans are generally more likely to believe political scientists contribute little or not at all than Democrats, who generally have more positive evaluations.

Americans would not be disappointed if their child pursued political science

While Americans are ambivalent over political scientists’ contributions, they remain generally supportive of their children pursuing a political science degree in college. A plurality of Americans would be neither disappointed nor proud in such a circumstance, with Democrats being more likely to feel pride. Only small proportions report disappointment. Compared to their child pursuing computer science, however, Americans are less supportive of a career in political science. Nonetheless, the percentage of Republicans who would be disappointed if their child studied political science is 14 percentage points larger than Democrats.

Americans are split on whether political scientists have their best interests in mind

When asked how confident they were that various professions act in the best interests of the American public, Americans gave middling reviews of political scientists. Generally, all partisans have more positive judgements of police officers and medical doctors and more negative perceptions of politicians. Confidence in political scientists is similar to that in journalists; Democrats are generally more confident, and Republicans less. Such confidence is generally less than that placed on economists, English professors, and historians. In some ways, then, political scientists are implicated by the subject matter they study, and must earn the confidence of the broader electorate.

Appendix

About The Polarization Research Lab and our Data

• The Polarization Research Lab works to understand and strengthen democracy by conducting rigorous science, producing public goods, and training the next generation of scholars. The Lab is led by PIs Sean J. Westwood at Dartmouth College and Yphtach Lelkes at the Annenberg School for Communication at University of Pennsylvania.
• PRL studies the political attitudes of Americans and the behavior of elected officials. Our goals are to:
  • Dispel rumors and show hard data on the democratic attitudes of citizens. We conduct the largest continuous tracking poll on YouGov, collecting 1,000 interviews of Americans a week.
  • Identify the behavior of elected officials that contributes to toxic polarization.
  • Produce publicly available reports and tools to help stakeholders advance responses to toxic polarization that are based in data and evidence. PRL works directly with journalists, democracy practitioners, and policymakers.

PRL Is Supported by

• The Charles Koch Foundation
• The Hewlett Foundation
• The Knight Foundation
• The Templeton World Charity Foundation
• The Carnegie Corporation
• New Pluralists

Survey Questions: Political Science

1. If you were to guess, what percent of American political scientists do you think are [randomize: Democrats/Republicans]?

   • 0-100%

2. Do you think political scientists can be trusted or not: [grid with level order randomized]

• When making election predictions

• On the future of American democracy

• On the likelihood of a coming American civil war

• On the effects of social welfare spending

• On foreign relations

• On trade policy

  • Trust Completely
  • Trust Somewhat
  • Neither Trust Nor Distrust
  • Distrust Somewhat
  • Distrust Completely

3. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Political scientists should remain politically neutral when communicating with the public about American politics.”

   • Strongly disagree
   • Somewhat disagree
   • Neither agree nor disagree
   • Somewhat agree
   • Strongly agree

4. How much confidence do you have in the findings of political scientists when they make claims about democracy in America?

   • A great deal of confidence
   • A fair amount of confidence
   • Some confidence
   • Little confidence
   • No confidence at all

5. How much would you say political scientists contribute to: [grid with level order randomized]

• Society

• American political debates

• Protecting democracy

  • A Lot
  • Quite a Bit
  • Some
  • A Little
  • Not at All

6. If my son or daughter decided to study political science in college I would be:

   • Very Proud
   • Proud
   • Neither proud nor disappointed
   • Disappointed
   • Very Disappointed

7. If my son or daughter decided to study computer science in college I would be:

   • Very Proud
   • Proud
   • Neither proud nor disappointed
   • Disappointed
   • Very Disappointed

8. How much confidence, if any, do you have in each of the following to act in the best interests of the public? [grid with level order randomized]

• Political scientists

• Economists

• Journalists

• Politicians

• Medical doctors

• Police officers

• English professors

• Historians

  • A great deal of confidence
  • A fair amount of confidence
  • Not too much confidence
  • No confidence at all

Copyright 2024 Polarization Research Lab

Footnotes

1. Note percentages do not sum to 100% because respondents were asked to share their perceptions of only one party (randomized).